19
0

1/26/2024 GameStop (GME) Estimated DRS count: 75,903,035

2y 4mon ago by lemmy.whynotdrs.org/u/lovetoburst in drs_your_gme@lemmy.whynotdrs.org from lemmy.whynotdrs.org

1/26/2024 Estimated DRS count: 75,903,035 ((using today's DRSbot total + fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets) x 4.129)

The 4.129 multiplier comes from 11/30/2023 Form 10-Q divided by DRSbot 11/30/2023 total: 75,400,000 / 18,262,331 = 4.129

Bloomberg data (to 1/26/2024), DRS estimated counts, and other:

HoldingNumber of sharesAs of
Former Insiders (Other)14,339,51012/9/2023
ETFs29,950,42012/9/2023
MFs, Index Funds, Pension Funds, etc36,116,3631/26/2024
Other Institutional Ownership30,102,68512/9/2023
Insiders38,655,91012/9/2023
DRS'd - 200k Computershare accounts75,903,0351/26/2024
Non-DRS - 200k acct if 30% stuck in IRA22,770,9111/26/2024
Non-DRS - 200k acct if 50% stuck in IRA15,180,6071/26/2024
Other42,494,8741/26/2024
  • Total Outstanding on 11/30/2023: 305,514,315
  • Thank you to lawsondt for the Bloomberg data to 12/9/2023
  • Blackrock increased shares by 567,123 on 12/31/2023 (1/26/2024 file date). From 21,977,404 to 22,544,527.
  • "Non-DRS - 200k acct if 30% stuck in IRA" is a conservative percentage. The Google share count surveys have suggested the 200k Computershare accounts have 40-50% additional shares stuck in IRAs.
  • "Fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets" is primarily whale #1's 1,390,972 DRS shares (as of 1/4/2024). Long story of switching subs and losing her DRS share count. So added the "fix inadvertent" column to capture her DRS shares.
  • Starting 1/4/2024, whale #1 started gift transferring DRS shares to others. 1,390,995 (on 12/25/2023) to now 1,390,972 (on 1/4/2024). Will continue using 1,390,995 in fix inadvertent unless those recipients feed DRSbot.

Discussion points:

  • It seems odd on some of the DRS count fluctuations since the beginning.
  • There have been 2 "somewhat hidden" 2022 rugpulls (May 2022 and Aug/Sep/Oct 2022), the June 2023 Mainstar rugpull, and now the Sep/Oct/Nov 2023 rugpull.
  • It seems odd on recent DRS count stagnating (excluding the Mainstar rugpull of 1.27 million shares). From a very simplistic view assuming 200,000 Computershare accounts:
Buy X number of shares a monthMultiply by 3 months per quarterTotal DRS per quarter if 100,000 active accountsTotal DRS per quarter if 200,000 active accounts
13300,000600,000
26600,0001,200,000
39900,0001,800,000
4121,200,0002,400,000
5151,500,0003,000,000
  • The April 2023 list of stockholders DRS numbers seem correct and line up with SEC filings.
  • Possible some investors have had to un-DRS.
  • Possible economic slowdown and inflation have reduced investor purchasing power.
  • Possible whale investors who helped inflate DRS numbers alot, have dramatically slowed down their purchasing.
  • Tinfoil - certain parties inflate DRS shares 9 to 18 months back, then drain their DRS shares later. Probably spread across say 3,000 accounts to make it seem like normal activity.
  • Tinfoil - operational efficiency draining from DRS non-Book shares on certain dates.
  • Tinfoil - possible something funny with SEC filing reported number.
  • There is the recent post from sister sub, google search on: Deep analysis on Computershare recurring buys reddit

He examines the bi-weekly recurring Computershare buys. The bi-weekly recurring buys were around $900k to $1.5 million.

An alternative DRS count estimation may be estimating money spent by retail purchasing GME per quarter. It was around $1.2 million average per 6 recurring Computershare buys per quarter. Then say a massively conservative $200k per other trading day. So:

If average $1.2 million spent per bi-weekly purchase, and say $14 a share, multiply by 6 for one GME quarter:

  • 1,200,000 / 14 = 85,714 shares * 6 = 514,284 shares
  • The 6 recurring buys alone should add 514,284 DRS shares.

Other 54 trading days:

  • $200,000 / $14 a share = 14,285 shares a day
  • 54 * 14,285 = 771,390 shares

Total:

514,284 + 771,390 = +1,285,674 DRS shares a quarter


Additional data:

Number of Computershare accounts:

DateNumber of Computershare accounts
5/8/2023213,4xx
8/2023 or 9/2023213,500
10/24/2023216,3xx
11/21/2023217,xxx
12/10/2023218,xxx
1/4/2024218,4xx

Number of record holders:

DateSourceNumber of record holders
3/11/2022Form 10-K125,543
3/22/2023Form 10-K197,058
4/21/2023List of stockholders197,954

4/21/2023 List of stockholders top 25 holders (Credit: drs gme org contributors):

PositionWhoAmount
1Cede & Co228,451,023.9
21,200,009
3203,868.0026
4160,000
5146,896
6128,000
7109,812
8108,000
9108,000
10GameStop Omnibus Account78,012
1172,000
1266,000
1365,329
1461,536
1560,140
1660,000
1760,000
1858,000
1957,884
2057,065.16734
2155,840
2255,479.32866
2353,000.09312
2451,600
2550,810.5893

Recent GME Volume

YearVolume
20222,825,293,700
20231,167,878,465