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2/2/2024 GameStop (GME) Estimated DRS count: 75,964,491

2y 4mon ago by lemmy.whynotdrs.org/u/lovetoburst in drs_your_gme@lemmy.whynotdrs.org from lemmy.whynotdrs.org

2/2/2024 Estimated DRS count: 75,964,491 ((using today's DRSbot total + fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets) x 4.129)

The 4.129 multiplier comes from 11/30/2023 Form 10-Q divided by DRSbot 11/30/2023 total: 75,400,000 / 18,262,331 = 4.129

Bloomberg data (to 1/26/2024), DRS estimated counts, and other:

HoldingNumber of sharesAs of
Former Insiders (Other)14,339,51012/9/2023
ETFs29,950,42012/9/2023
MFs, Index Funds, Pension Funds, etc36,116,3631/26/2024
Other Institutional Ownership30,102,68512/9/2023
Insiders38,655,91012/9/2023
DRS'd - 200k Computershare accounts75,964,4912/2/2024
Non-DRS - 200k acct if 30% stuck in IRA22,789,3472/2/2024
Non-DRS - 200k acct if 50% stuck in IRA15,192,8982/2/2024
Other42,402,6912/2/2024
  • Total Outstanding on 11/30/2023: 305,514,315
  • Thank you to lawsondt for the Bloomberg data to 12/9/2023
  • Blackrock increased shares by 567,123 on 12/31/2023 (1/26/2024 file date). From 21,977,404 to 22,544,527.
  • "Non-DRS - 200k acct if 30% stuck in IRA" is a conservative percentage. The Google share count surveys have suggested the 200k Computershare accounts have 40-50% additional shares stuck in IRAs.
  • "Fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets" is primarily whale #1's 1,390,972 DRS shares (as of 1/4/2024). Long story of switching subs and losing her DRS share count. So added the "fix inadvertent" column to capture her DRS shares.
  • Starting 1/4/2024, whale #1 started gift transferring DRS shares to others. 1,390,995 (on 12/25/2023) to now 1,390,972 (on 1/4/2024). Will continue using 1,390,995 in fix inadvertent unless those recipients feed DRSbot.

Discussion points:

  • It seems odd on some of the DRS count fluctuations since the beginning.
  • There have been 2 "somewhat hidden" 2022 rugpulls (May 2022 and Aug/Sep/Oct 2022), the June 2023 Mainstar rugpull, and now the Sep/Oct/Nov 2023 rugpull.
  • It seems odd on recent DRS count stagnating (excluding the Mainstar rugpull of 1.27 million shares). From a very simplistic view assuming 200,000 Computershare accounts:
Buy X number of shares a monthMultiply by 3 months per quarterTotal DRS per quarter if 100,000 active accountsTotal DRS per quarter if 200,000 active accounts
13300,000600,000
26600,0001,200,000
39900,0001,800,000
4121,200,0002,400,000
5151,500,0003,000,000
  • The April 2023 list of stockholders DRS numbers seem correct and line up with SEC filings.
  • Possible some investors have had to un-DRS.
  • Possible economic slowdown and inflation have reduced investor purchasing power.
  • Possible whale investors who helped inflate DRS numbers alot, have dramatically slowed down their purchasing.
  • Tinfoil - certain parties inflate DRS shares 9 to 18 months back, then drain their DRS shares later. Probably spread across say 3,000 accounts to make it seem like normal activity.
  • Tinfoil - operational efficiency draining from DRS non-Book shares on certain dates.
  • Tinfoil - possible something funny with SEC filing reported number.
  • There is the recent post from sister sub, google search on: Deep analysis on Computershare recurring buys reddit

He examines the bi-weekly recurring Computershare buys. The bi-weekly recurring buys were around $900k to $1.5 million.

An alternative DRS count estimation may be estimating money spent by retail purchasing GME per quarter. It was around $1.2 million average per 6 recurring Computershare buys per quarter. Then say a massively conservative $200k per other trading day. So:

If average $1.2 million spent per bi-weekly purchase, and say $14 a share, multiply by 6 for one GME quarter:

  • 1,200,000 / 14 = 85,714 shares * 6 = 514,284 shares
  • The 6 recurring buys alone should add 514,284 DRS shares.

Other 54 trading days:

  • $200,000 / $14 a share = 14,285 shares a day
  • 54 * 14,285 = 771,390 shares

Total:

514,284 + 771,390 = +1,285,674 DRS shares a quarter


Additional data:

Number of Computershare accounts:

DateNumber of Computershare accounts
5/8/2023213,4xx
8/2023 or 9/2023213,500
10/24/2023216,3xx
11/21/2023217,xxx
12/10/2023218,xxx
1/4/2024218,4xx

Number of record holders:

DateSourceNumber of record holders
3/11/2022Form 10-K125,543
3/22/2023Form 10-K197,058
4/21/2023List of stockholders197,954

4/21/2023 List of stockholders top 25 holders (Credit: drs gme org contributors):

PositionWhoAmount
1Cede & Co228,451,023.9
21,200,009
3203,868.0026
4160,000
5146,896
6128,000
7109,812
8108,000
9108,000
10GameStop Omnibus Account78,012
1172,000
1266,000
1365,329
1461,536
1560,140
1660,000
1760,000
1858,000
1957,884
2057,065.16734
2155,840
2255,479.32866
2353,000.09312
2451,600
2550,810.5893

GME Volume last 2 years:

YearVolume
20222,825,293,700
20231,167,878,465

15 lowest volume days (to 2/1/2024):

RankDateVolumeClosing price
18/3/20231,318,700$20.93
28/8/20231,431,300$20.74
38/10/20231,432,400$20.19
48/7/20231,441,300$21.07
57/26/20231,489,200$22.70
68/11/20231,500,200$20.19
75/9/20231,522,700$20.24
85/11/20231,652,500$20.88
91/30/20241,652,600$14.55
107/25/20231,672,000$22.85
119/27/20231,681,300$17.15
1211/8/20231,705,600$13.28
137/12/20231,742,200$23.44
144/13/20231,803,900$22.55
157/3/20231,806,600$24.91

Who the other. That's a massive chunk