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We've been geoengineering for some time without knowing it. That geoengineering project has masked atmospheric heating. Now we have to pay the piper
Prof Eliot Jacobson has the decadal increase at 0.32°C/Decade, which given we are at 1.5°C now means ~2.5°C around 2050 and ~4°C by 2100
However, he also thinks the trend isn't linear and is quadratic, meaning an increasing rate of change, so that 4°C could be low
https://climatecasino.net/2025/01/betting-on-the-end-of-the-world-2025-edition/