Me_irl
4d 8h ago by lemmy.today/u/sanitation in me_irl from lemmy.today
Opportunists and fools,
in 3 weeks, most everyone.
And lastly, If you knew that the ~$10T USA 401k market would be forced to buy shares in a company with 5% float due to rule changes, you might see a bull case. I'm not touching it, but don't expect traditional value investing in a rigged system where too much concentrated wealth is sloshing around looking for the next big thing.
The market isn't for us anymore, it thinks we're for it
Ask not what the market can do for you..
too much concentrated wealth is sloshing around looking for the next big thing.
IDK about concentrated, I always figured Tesla and now SpaceX was more retail investors who are in elons cult.
Larger funds would probably steer clear of them because the fundamentals make no sense. Meanwhile bill in Oklahoma has no idea what a p/e ratio is but he thinks he's helping Elon fight the woke mind virus by buying SpaceX shares.
Unfortunately a lot of larger funds buy or follow S&P500. Tesla is currently ranked in 9th place on the 500 list, weighing in at 1.77% of the index.
What scares me is like the top 10 companies on that are resting heavily on AI. Like 30% of the S&P is gonna get hit hard if the AI bubble pops
The rest will fall like domino the entire economy is.
S&P is not buying it.
They decided not to do the rule change after so much backlash.
Only the S&p 500 rejected it from what I am aware. It's in Nasdaq and probably others
Nasdaq and Russell updated their rules to allow it.
Idk, most recent news I've seen was just that the change had been challenged by a bunch of states but it hadn't been stopped yet
Do you have a retirement account? In that case, YOU! They bent all the rules (it bends really far if it's already broken), and now we get to fund the pump. The dump will come soon...
S&P rejected the proposal last I read.
12-Month "Seasoning": A company must trade publicly on a major exchange for at least 12 months. Got to wait until at least next year
Profitability: A company must report positive GAAP net income over the most recent quarter, and over the last four quarters combined. Starlink is profitable, and the rockets are almost break even. xAI, Twitter and all the other shit means a 5bn loss
Float Requirements: The company must have a sufficient amount of its shares available for public trading (at least 10%). SpaceX float was 4.3%. More shares need to be offered
Right, I guess in my limited knowledge opinion, if a company actually qualifies for an index, let them join. But don't be d te rules so Elon can write billions in debt off to Joe Taxpayer.
I keep asking myself why I still see Teslas out on the road. Like who tf is still buying let alone owning one of those trash dumps? Like seriously.
What's even more stupid is that I keep seeing ads everywhere for Musk's stupid ass Star Link. Why is anyone in their right mind even bothering to take his ads? JFC. They have one job but they can't even stand up to corruption.
I just saw a cyber truck with a temporary tag on it , meaning the asshole bought it less than 30 days ago. At this point it’s a deliberate choice
My wife's distant cousin or something who we see at some holidays bought a cybertruck a few years ago and actually had a party for when he brought it home. At said party he was planning on taking people on rides but something happened and it wouldn't start. So he drove it home, parked it in his garage, tried to suck his own dick and instead got a very expensive paper weight. Last I heard it was still just sitting there because it would cost too much to fix and he was fighting with the company, but still singing praises.
There’s a ton of them out there. Lotta idiots, lotta people who only care about themselves.
Yes, right? I still have discussions about this. Teslas aren't so bad and so on. Wtf.
I have a T3 from 2021. Still drives well. What am I going to do? I wouldn't buy another Tesla as musk is a dick, but it's a good car.
My parents use starlink from their off grid house in the middle of nowhere - it's the only way to get decent internet there. Not sure what ads you're talking about, but I generally avoid media with ads.
The absolute best case scenario: someone wants an EV and used Teslas have hit rock bottom prices due to people selling them.
But at this point, people by a Tesla because they want to lick Musk's taint.
So many people suck up the ads and think Teslas with "autonomous driving" are the car of the future. They look up to them. I just don't get it.
For the ad companies, money is money. They'll run any ad that pays. Hell, Google runs porn ads on YouTube on the same videos they force to self sensor so much even a puritan would say to lighten up a bit.
I keep asking myself why I still see Teslas out on the road.
Because cars are expensive and electric vehicles last quite a long time.
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Short term investors who know it's a fraud and will get out leaving others holding the bag.
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Fucking morons who will be left holding the bag.
- a. Anyone moron with a retirement account
Unfortunately, with how "401k"s and broad banking and saving investments work, you are probably investing in SpaceX. Which is what makes it all the more concerning.
Totally this, all of us will be investing in SpaceX because they're setting us all up to invest in it unknowingly
You can configure your 401k to not be involved in this nonsense. I moved my US stock holdings to a few value-based index funds. The ones I'm in now have a 0.25% expense ratio. Still not as low as an S&P 500 or similar index fund (usually about 0.01-0.025%), but still better than most traditional managed mutual funds (1-2% range). But what's good about funds like this is that they don't weight the index based on market cap. They don't try to have the index track the dow, the nasdaq, or the S&P 500, which are all based on market caps based on present trading price. Instead, these value index funds weight based on objective measures, rather than market price. These measures include things like actual revenue, book value, debt level, etc.
You can still get broad market participation at low management cost while avoiding the AI IPO grift.
401ks. They changed the rules and 401ks are forced to buy the stock.
Basically anyone buying now is dumping in two weeks.
*401ks of those who didn't pay attention.
No one in their right mind is investing in SpaceX. The business is hemorrhaging cash and the only part of it that is even remotely viable is StarLink.
And StarLink has some serious -- although currently unrealized --risks related to competition from fiber, which is and always will be technologically superior, and the increasing potential for a satellite to go crashing through someone's living room.
Aside from the satellites comment, people said / say the same thing about Tesla. If you invested in Tesla the day it went public in 2010 you'd be 400x+ richer today.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting you invest in Tesla or spaceX, but the most successful investors separate morals from money. Does that make them bad people? Yes it does, but many get rich doing it that way.
Apparently investors also separate money from money because tesla's valuation makes absolutely no sense from a money perspective either with a PE ratio of over 300.
What you're describing aren't investors, but gamblers benefiting from a rigged market.
There is no way to invest in SpaceX while separating morals from money. The only reason to invest in it is vibes - aka personal morals.
If you actually read their IPO documents, their assumed valuation is based on a comically large assumed customer market. In order to justify their IPO price, they assume that long term they will be getting about $30,000/year in revenue from 1 billion people. Take literally every person in the developed world. And then assume every single one of them is paying SpaceX $30k per year for some reason. That's literally, per SpaceX's own documents, what it would take to justify their IPO price. And the only way you're making a profit on that is if the price goes even higher.
In order to grow 400x, SpaceX would have a market cap of $800 trillion. Global GDP is only $130 trillion. The only way to think a SpaceX investment is a good idea is the greater fool theory.
Tesla wasn’t worth a trillion dollar though.
SpaceX at IPO is already one of the biggest companies around.
Sure it could become 400x but that would be far more likely if it was worth a few billion.
If it was only about their space activities, then I could imagine investing in SpaceX.
But according the the documents they released before the IPO, space related activities represent only 7% of their valuation, 93% of their valuation of AI.
It does not make sense but apparently this is worth trillion.
Honestly, that is worse than I expected.
Well thank you,
Your comment killed any FOMO I had.
The ONLY upside to the rape of natural resources that is the current data center construction frenzy-
more rural fiber
Stock market profiteers and Wall Street bots.
I'm so scared of losing our retirement
"foreign interests"
Because they wanna be part of the grift.
It's gonna collapse. Price 100% gonna collapse right after they get past the 401k raiding phase
Luckily, I don't give a shit about money or the stock market or people that wanna win in the stock market. I sail along in my mediocre life with my mediocre income. As long as I have enough to pay my bills, I'm fine, I don't aspire to much more anyways.
Love the ethos. Serious question: what do you plan on doing once you can't work anymore? Are you saving or just plan on dying or what? (Or do you live in a country that you believe will honor its version of social security?)
Honestly hoping that pension is still a thing once I'm old. If it isn't a chair and a rope is ok as well.
Because Starlink monopoly would be the only good reason I can think of.
China has 5 companies launching sats creating a similar network. That starlink monopoly is maybe for 1-2 more years. Russia is already launching a similar network for the military, I think about 1-2 months out for military use.
Most (85%) of their valuation is in AI and data centers in space. https://youtu.be/FPIGu0anfAE
Nope, Starlink and space related activities is only a tiny percentage of their valuation (around 7%). Most of their valuation comes from their future AI activities.
I honestly feel the investors know it's not real, but if you get enough rich guys to all say "this is worth money " the banks will give them loans on it, as long as they all stick together it will always go up.
I think there is way too much linking of SpaceX with Musk. Yes he is involved but he lacks the necessary skills to be anything other than a manager.
He has no rocketry experience at all and to the best of my knowledge does not have enough in depth science knowledge to work with those much younger more experienced engineers/scientists at SpaceX.
SpaceX is now combined with Twitter and that jank xAI. The majority of the "valuation" comes from fantasies about how AI is going to bring in trillions of dollars.
Exactly. It's not only not profitable, but the valuation is nearly 100x revenue. And that revenue is just government largess.
I personally dropped all my index funds to avoid this grift.
I've kept some US exposure, but I moved to a value-based index fund that weights not based on market cap, but by objective measures like actual earnings, book value, etc.
What's the fund, I'm interested
FNDX and other similar ones in that family. Note, I have no connection to Schwab other than as as customer. And this is not financial advice, just what I've done in my own life. Take your own risks, etc. Maybe the fever dreams of the AI cultists will come true. OpenAI and SpaceX will summon mechanical gods, and through mass automation take over the entire economy. And those not heavily invested with them will be rendered paupers. Or maybe just half their dreams come true, and you miss out on a lot of potential growth. I can't predict the future. There still are some tech stocks in the most held companies in these funds, but they're ones like Apple, Google, Amazon, etc. - companies with actual, very real large-scale revenue.
But personally, I'm just trying to opt out of the whole AI bubble cashout. And I'm someone whose spent their entire career abiding by the "don't try to time the market" philosophy. I learned early on that the most reliable way to invest was to just by cheap index funds, and that's exactly what I've done my whole career. But this just seems to me such a blatant scheme designed deliberately to take advantage of people that invest their retirement in passive index fund investing. it just feels like such a deep personal insult that's it got me to abandon over 15 years of using S&P500/Nasdaq/DOW/Total Market-tracking index funds.
Anyway, sorry, you didn't ask for all that. That's just where my head is this morning I suppose.
No, thanks much, I'm trying to do the same. Already holding gold and locked in a mortgage since I'm anticipating stagflation, but would really like to not hold cash AND not be the unwilling bagholder for Elon and the AI bubble.
Dammit! Another surveillance pic of me just chilling!
I'm giving it a minute, but then will be investing, regardless of what you think of Musk, SpaceX is an incredible company.
An incredibly bad company. As impressive as low earth orbit satellite internet is, it's impractical to keep launching so many satellites every five years just to provide internet inferior to wired in all but niche cases. This is their strongest commercial case.
The company benefits greatly from government contracts paid out instead of properly supporting NASA. NASA could've been tasked with developing reusable rockets, but it is intentionally hobbled for political purposes.
Even with things working in SpaceX's favor, it gets saddled with the neutron star known as xAI under twitter/x, competely outweighing any possible profit by far.
I mean they are literally the most successful space company ever and have revolutioned launch systems and completely revitalised the industry.
NASA also benefits from contracts as they don't have to pay billions to develop the rocket that would have to justify it's existence every 4 years, get reworked and design requirements changed constantly and most likely get cut 80% if the way through development and can instead just spend money on the actual missions.
That's all because of government de-funding of NASA and billionaires siphoning away so much money from the economy that they have the capital available to start vanity space companies. Even still, SpaceX's biggest commercial success story is Starlink, which could easily be outclassed by terrestrial internet if ISPs bothered, and is a maintenance nightmare that requires launching a whole bunch of satellites every five years or so. The rest of their money is from government contracts which is the continued siphoning of public money into private hands. If NASA was tasked with making reusable rockets, it'd be cheaper in the long run and the public would benefit from shared research, but again, it's intentionally made inefficient for political purposes.
Even with all of these advantages, the vast majority of SpaceX's valuation comes from their AI story, thanks to the AI bubble, which is currently so much of a money drain that it has more than wiped out all profits from their space activities.
No, SpaceX biggest success story is the Falcon9. The most flown launch system in history by a huge margin, most reliable launch system in history by a wide margin, and absurdly cheap thanks to the integrated supply chain and reusablitly, launches booked out years and years in advance.
And you're massively downplaying starlink. It's biggest use cases are things like ships and planes that cannot possibly use terrestrial broadband. Then even with rural users it's a game changer as ISP arent going to spend millions rolling out high speed connection to the middle of nowhere. It's just not economical for them.
Based on past NASA projects it would be so much more expensive for them to develop them themselves even without the inevitable constantly shifting budgets and mission requirements. You can blame that on whatever you want, but it's still the reality.
None of that matters when SpaceX is bleeding money like crazy thanks to the AI that is supposed to justify its trillion dollar valuation.