Pletenchuk predicted that Russian logisticians would, despite Ukrainian drone dominance in Donetsk, Kherson and the northern Crimea region, keep trying to move military material along existing routes “out of inertia.”

Ukraine’s advantage in aircraft and geography will nonetheless make Crimea untenable for Russia to hold in the long term, he said.“At some point, a critical mass of defeats accumulates, ultimately leading to the collapse of the system itself. Let’s look at the Crimean Peninsula. It’s surrounded by water on three sides. And, accordingly, the history of previous wars fought on this territory should suggest to those who occupied it that they all ended roughly the same way. And always not very well – with retreat,” Pletenchuk said.