Brexit has been an economic failure | LSE British Politics
11h 50m ago by lemmy.world/u/CAVOK in europe@feddit.org from blogs.lse.ac.uk
Right wing ideology always fails, yet the idiots persist anyway.
Most other right wing parties in the EU no longer want to leave thanks to these idiots example.
Lies! Fake news!! Socialist!!!! Like the left is so smart and knows it all 😡
Wind turbines are absolutely SHREDDING our birds!!! 🫨😫 why isnt my gov't doing something about that ⁉️🤔 oh right, you need BASIC EDUCATION in order to unterstand that.
/s
:)
Too bad for the /s poiler :p
CoMmOn SeNsE!!!
Nonono, it has been a MASSIVE economic failure!
Fulfilling just about the worst prognosis that were made during the campaign. Which incidentally I was among the ones to predict, because I based my predictions on hard Brexit as inevitable.
The reality is completely contrary to the lies of the Brexit campaign, that promised both savings in not paying to EU, and increased economic growth because UK alone would be better. Turns out UK alone is not better or stronger than EU in making trade deals.
The best available estimates imply that by the end of 2019 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 2 per cent to 3 per cent.
This is even before Brexit was enforced!
Brexit may have reduced UK GDP per head by as much as 8 per cent by the start of 2025.
This is probably the number you should be looking for, because this is about the actual effect of Brexit, and even that is on the cautious side, pushing a lot of the blame on for instance COVID.
But worse than that, it isn't quite over yet, as predicted the effect wouldn't be sudden but gradual, and I personally estimated 1% per year for 10 years.
After that it was obviously hard to predict, because it would depend on the political success of UK governments in making agreements with other nations, especially USA but also many many more and of course EU.
Unlucky for UK those deals have been mostly worthless. And only softening up towards EU seems to have any promise of finally stopping the bleeding.
As things stand today, I estimate that the bleeding will continue for another decade, although only at about half the rate on average.
And only then will it settle on a level that UK can continue to grow from like they would normally do.
So another 4% drop making a total of 12% compared to if UK had remained in EU. And that 12% will be directly felt on private economies!
Nice analysis. I agree with every bit of it. IMO, Brexit was among the most ignorant, naive and stupid things that the UK ever did. If the Suez canal crisis was the "beginning of the end", then Brexit might have been the final nail in the coffin.
And I hate to admit, but if I look at the current global situation, I think europeans and brits will eventually need to get their shit together and move closer once again. So every lost % of the UK's bleeding economy will also be our European loss by having a weaker partner in times to come.
So every lost % of the UK’s bleeding economy will also be our European loss
Absolutely this, not only is UK a weaker partner, but the economic loss has also been on the European side, although not as much, and the loss is distributed among 27 countries. But still this wasn't good for anybody except maybe Russia?
I'm from Denmark, and UK used to be our biggest export market in the 70's. Today UK is only number 5! ( not 120 just 5 😱 ).
UK is now after USA, Germany, Sweden and China.
Seems like the tendency now for UK is clearly to move closer to EU again, and we are interested on both sides, and the Ukraine war is an amazing catalyst for it, together with USA becoming a rogue nation and completely unreliable. UK had hoped for strong cooperation with USA, but I don't think that seems very attractive anymore.
Hej du 🇩🇰🇪🇺 you mentioned Russia and it benefitting from European division. This is actually something thats on my mind for quite some time now. The only nation benefitting from Brexit, Farage, Trump, Orban, Andrzej Duda, AfD, Le Pen, etc. is Russia. I never found any hard evidence or proof that their misonformation campain or is the reason for let's say Brexit, but it's hard to believe that it's all just an coincidence.
Personally, I'd like to forget the last 10 years and let the UK formally reenter the EU, but no half-assed cherry picking this time. We are all europeans and we need to stand and fall together.
Also, I am deeply afraid of the AfD movement in my home country Germany. A Dexit or Gerexit (?) would surely mean an end to all of Germanys exporting markets. And guess whose party's members regularly call for deeper integration with Russia? Yep.
There was evidence that Russia influnced the Brexit election heavily, and for instance Farage and Boris Johnson were supported by Russia. But weirdly since conservatives and even Boris Johnson became PM after the election, an investigation into the Russian influence was stopped.
We have seen Russian influence in many countries, positively proven in for instance USA, France, Moldova and Hungary.
We can only hope that when Russia lose the war against Ukraine, that Russia will focus more on restoring Russia than undermining Europe, USA and NATO. Although they may have succeeded in destroying NATO already.
AfD nearing 30% is worse than I expected just a few months ago. 30% is insane for a protest party in a reasonably functioning democracy. Clearly there must be issues that are handled very poorly in Germany by the traditional parties. The first that comes to mind is of course tightening of immigration. Because AFAIK that is one of the biggest points AfD is pushing.
But probably also issues for lower income workers, which AfD votes may be a protest against, although I bet it will quickly become worse if AfD actually got real influence, as they are an extreme right wing party.
I doubt Germany would leave EU, AFAIK EU support remains pretty strong in Germany, with roughly 70% of the German population viewing EU positively.
Even if Germans were somewhat unhappy with EU, it would be incredibly stupid to leave, my guess is that it would be even worse for Germany than it was for UK. But it would also be bad for EU, and could push Europe into a recession, causing a double whammy for Germany, with less share of a smaller market.
Regarding AfD all I can say is that in my own country we had a similar situation, but when the other parties woke up and reacted to the main problems, and after that party (Danish peoples party) got some actual influence, their popularity fell back to way more moderate levels. Hopefully this will happen in Germany too, before AfD becomes too dangerous.
AfD may gain some influence, but they will not be able to pull Germany out of EU.
You don't say...
Don't give me that look!! You know very well what you guys did!! 😡
Who is "you guys"?
Who knew less trade and access to markets would be a bad thing. The things you don't learn untill you try it.
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NO ONE COULD HAVE PREDICTED THIS!
ABSOLUTELY NO ONE! said the faceless man, after having pet the leopard...
So the Brits will elect the guy who spearheaded the brexit movement
I just don't understand how people can just listen to the lies again and believe it. What is wrong with my country
He looked sincere this time! And what's the alternative? Science?? lmao 🤣
Or something like that
@CAVOK it has - sadly - been an economic success for a very few people who aimed to line their personal pockets with the fallout. Some people are now more wealthy because of how they used the turmoil, desinformation and corruption for their own benefit.
As someone who has been born in this shithole, let these cretins destroy themselves. Who cares at this point? I mean, apparently they want to live in the pig den of Europe, because why else would they elect Farage, who brought them the mess in the first place, together with the Russians. My favorite excuse will always be: "But we were lied to." Anyone with 2 brain cells could have seen this result coming. What else did they expect when they sanctioned themselves away from the most important market on the planet?