Update from Ukraine | Ukraine May Soon Start Big Landing operation in Crimea | Denys Davydov - Youtube (Invidious link)
5h 33m ago by sopuli.xyz/u/supersquirrel in ukraine@sopuli.xyz from inv.nadeko.net
Failure and collapse in war starts sometimes starts slowly, but it never remains a slow, predictable or containable process for long.
You're not supposed to say that before the operation
There is literally nothing russia can do at this point but shit their pants and pace back and forth nervously.
The fear is integral to the military impact, so is the anticipation, why do people not understand this? Secrecy when unnecessary makes things more dangerous because it means that the entire thing must be done to have impact whereas if you point out the possibility of something before you do it you begin to project power without having to even act or take that particular path in reality. With secrecy, possibility has no inherent power, that is the trade off.
The thing is russian military higher ups know an amphibious operation/invasion of Crimea is a real possibility, they don't need a random youtuber to tell them.
This video doesn't include secret time tables or information that would actually blow the cover of a real specific operation, it makes it so the idiots who think russia can hold Crimea begin to get more and more nervous and demand the higher ups explain how russia can hold Crimea when the higher ups themselves know it is impossible longterm.
The fear is integral to the military impact, so is the anticipation
Our chief weapon is fear. Fear and anticipation. Our two weapons are fear, anticipation and secrecy. Our three weapons...
...I'll come in again.
Governments & militaries regular leak things like this for strategic purposes. This could very well be misinformation to force Russia to try to quickly reinforce Crimea while Ukraine plans and eventually attacks Russia elsewhere.
Just by talking about it:
Civilians who moved to Crimea from Russia are likely to move back to Russia.
Encourages Russia to hold significant reserves and stockpiles in the peninsula to fend off an incursion instead of sending them to the front.
The story probably wouldn't reach the majority in Russia or the areas it controls though. It has to come from within, like going to the gas station and having to be in a long queue, or hearing an explosion nearby.
Unless you're being strategic. Force Russia to concentrate it's defenses in Crimea at the expense of Donbas kind of idea.
You are very supposed to say that before the operation.
Because enemies running away ease the operation.
Great news. Looking forward to a reunited Ukraine. Kick the occupiers out!
There is no way lol.. I want Ukraine to win as much as the next guy, but if you know anything about the war then you know that this is not going to happen
Even just starting large-scale SOF raids without intention of retaking Crimea immediately would be a significant game-changer.
I mean, that's definitely Ukraine's long term plan if the war continues, but they just managed to fully stop the Russian advance on the mainland.
So what would a drone-era landing look like? It seems like you'd basically have the grey zone extending over the water, as well as on the beach and land.
So what would a drone-era landing look like? It seems like you’d basically have the grey zone extending over the water, as well as on the beach and land.
Nobody knows exactly but also you can simply conceptualize of the tactical situation like this, think of the amphibious landing and invasion as entirely traditional in nature for the most part, the difference is it would happen after a prolonged campaign of Battlefield Air Interdiction with drones that starved the russian forces in Crimea of supplies to fight and maintain their positions which would include thoroughly erasing their capacity to launch large amount of strike drones in the area of operation. Thus the bulk of russian drones and drone operators are pushed back long before any physical invasion would happen. This isn't really a departure from traditional military theory, any kind of offensive action virtually requires suppression and elimination of an enemies logistics to set the stage, the advantage has always been far too heavily in favor of the defender in war for this not to be a strategic requirement.
Of course Ukraine could choose to launch an invasion of Crimea before that point if they were confident enough that their saturation of drone interceptors and AA at every level of organization in their fighting structures are sufficient, but you can also conceptualize that as attempting to accomplish a BAI campaign and an invasion at the same moment and understand it in fairly traditional military terms.
A failed mirror view of this can be seen in how russia's Battlefield Air Interdiction campaign through late 2025 into 2026 failed at a strategic level to set the conditions for a successful summer offensive in 2026. If this campaign had been more successful and more oppressive it would have forced Ukraine to begin abandoning territory even when they still had the equipment and means to fight purely because they couldn't get any supplies whatsoever to the frontline units that needed them. Russia made it very hard for Ukraine to do so, but they have been tactically out adapted by Ukrainian counters to the point that the strategy failed at a general level.
Where is your proof? If you are going to make that claim you need to back it up thoroughly.
